>>154 ID:cnT5SUGd
>コアコアCPIを消費税増税の影響を除いてグラフを見ろ。
>誰がどうみても山は2014年3月、有意点も2014年4月。
>デフレの原因消費税増税による総需要減少、解決策、消費税減税。
>小学生でも分かる。
デフレの原因が消費税増税と言いたいわけだな
だが一般的には日本のデフレの原因は消費税とはされていない
- 人口の高齢化
- 低成長(生産性・競争力の減少・低迷)
- 不動産価格の低迷
これらのデフレ要因は量的緩和でゼロにはできないものの、問題を縮小することができるとされている
>>157 ID:jzZCAAOQ ID:cnT5SUGd
>>156 >学ぶ気がないなら無駄だな。
>デフレの原因消費税増税による総需要減少、解決策、消費税減税。
少なくともIMFのエコミストは、日銀の人口の高齢化や低成長、不動産価格の低迷を原因とするデフレ対策として量的緩和を支持している
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14139.pdf IMF Working Paper
Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department
Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?
Prepared by Derek Anderson, Dennis Botman, Ben Hunt1
Authorized for distribution by Stephan Danninger
August 2014
Abstract
Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal
sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s
Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary
pressures from aging, mainly from declining growth and falling land prices. Dissaving by
the elderly makes matters worse as it leads to real exchange rate appreciation from the
repatriation of foreign assets. The deflationary effects from aging are magnified by the large
fiscal consolidation need. Many of these factors will beset other advanced countries as well,
but we find that deflation risk from aging is not inevitable as ambitious structural reforms
and an aggressive monetary policy reaction can provide the offset.